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TURKEY: Inflation Lower Than Expected in December, May Support Further Easing

TURKEY
  • Headline inflation rose by 44.4% Y/Y in December from 47.1% in November, below expectations of a more gradual decline to 45.2%. Core CPI came in at 45.34% - a touch below expectations and the lowest print since May 2023 – while the M/M read more than halved to 1.03% (Est: +1.60%).
  • Given the importance policymakers have previously placed on the latter, the soft print may justify further rate cuts in the months ahead after the CBRT kicked off its easing cycle in December with a 250bp cut while switching to a more data-dependent stance. The central bank meet next on Jan 23.
  • Separately, Milliyet report that based on current data and estimates, a 12-18% salary increase for civil servants and retirees is expected this year.
  • President Recep Tayyip Erdogan announces preliminary trade data for December at 11:00GMT/14:00 local time while the central bank publishes weekly portfolio capital flows data at 11:30GMT/14:30 local.
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  • Headline inflation rose by 44.4% Y/Y in December from 47.1% in November, below expectations of a more gradual decline to 45.2%. Core CPI came in at 45.34% - a touch below expectations and the lowest print since May 2023 – while the M/M read more than halved to 1.03% (Est: +1.60%).
  • Given the importance policymakers have previously placed on the latter, the soft print may justify further rate cuts in the months ahead after the CBRT kicked off its easing cycle in December with a 250bp cut while switching to a more data-dependent stance. The central bank meet next on Jan 23.
  • Separately, Milliyet report that based on current data and estimates, a 12-18% salary increase for civil servants and retirees is expected this year.
  • President Recep Tayyip Erdogan announces preliminary trade data for December at 11:00GMT/14:00 local time while the central bank publishes weekly portfolio capital flows data at 11:30GMT/14:30 local.