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Inflation Slows Sharply To 2+ Year Lows

BELGIUM
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Belgian flash September CPI came in at 2.39% Y/Y (vs 4.09% prior), the lowest since July 2021, with a M/M drop of 0.69%. Core CPI dropped to 6.95% Y/Y vs 7.70% prior (and an 8.7% peak in May).

  • The disinflation evidenced by HICP was even more dramatic, with an estimate of just 0.7% Y/Y vs 2.4% in August. That would mark the lowest Y/Y reading since February 2021.
  • Belgium is the 6th highest weighting in the Eurozone HICP basket at 4% and thus this presents an additional disinflationary risk to Friday's consensus euro estimate of 4.5% Y/Y (following on from slightly softer-than-expected German state and Spanish prints).
  • Per StatBel, the biggest contributors to inflation in September were alcoholic beverages, motor fuels, and travel. Pulling down inflation were airfares, confectionery, bread and cereals, hotel rooms, natural gas, vegetables, meat, non-alcoholic beverages, fruit, and dairy products.

Source: Statbel

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Belgian flash September CPI came in at 2.39% Y/Y (vs 4.09% prior), the lowest since July 2021, with a M/M drop of 0.69%. Core CPI dropped to 6.95% Y/Y vs 7.70% prior (and an 8.7% peak in May).

  • The disinflation evidenced by HICP was even more dramatic, with an estimate of just 0.7% Y/Y vs 2.4% in August. That would mark the lowest Y/Y reading since February 2021.
  • Belgium is the 6th highest weighting in the Eurozone HICP basket at 4% and thus this presents an additional disinflationary risk to Friday's consensus euro estimate of 4.5% Y/Y (following on from slightly softer-than-expected German state and Spanish prints).
  • Per StatBel, the biggest contributors to inflation in September were alcoholic beverages, motor fuels, and travel. Pulling down inflation were airfares, confectionery, bread and cereals, hotel rooms, natural gas, vegetables, meat, non-alcoholic beverages, fruit, and dairy products.

Source: Statbel