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Inflation & Trade Figures On Tap Today


A reminder that China inflation and trade figures for September print today. Recent trends for both prints are broadly expected to be maintained.

  • CPI is expected to rise further to 2.9% y/y, from 2.5% previously. All upside pressures are likely to remain in the food segment though. Non-food prices are expected to be biased lower or remain muted on the back of the softer domestic demand backdrop. Core inflation printed at 0.8% y/y last month.
  • PPI pressures are forecast to moderate further, down to 1.0% y/y from 2.3% in August.
  • On trade, the surplus is expected to remain healthy at $80.30bn (last $79.39bn). Export growth is forecast to slow to 4.0% y/y, from 7.1% previously. Moderating export growth would be in line with the trend seen in other NEA economies, like Taiwan and South Korea. We noted this was a risk earlier in the week (see this link for more details).
  • Imports are expected to flat in y/y terms, versus 0.3% in August. China's domestic demand backdrop will be eyed, while we get a further update next Tuesday when September activity prints are due.

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