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​ING Identify Minimal Downside Risks to Their 2.1% 2024 Growth Forecast

HUNGARY
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  • Based on the initial GDP estimate and lacking detailed information, ING believe it is premature to revise their economic growth forecast for Hungary this year. However, they do identify a minimal upside risk to their current 2.1% growth projection for this year.
  • Despite the beat in the quarter-on-quarter print, ING note that it is important to highlight that seasonal factors played a more substantial role than usual, as confirmed by the 0.6ppt difference between the raw data and the adjusted indicator (1.7% Y/Y) due to fewer working days.
  • According to the preliminary statement, the margin of error for the rapid estimates (15 days earlier than usual) could be as high as +0.2ppt compared to the detailed data. ING say this means that, despite the slight upside surprise we've seen today, this could be reversed when the second estimate is finally released on June 4.
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  • Based on the initial GDP estimate and lacking detailed information, ING believe it is premature to revise their economic growth forecast for Hungary this year. However, they do identify a minimal upside risk to their current 2.1% growth projection for this year.
  • Despite the beat in the quarter-on-quarter print, ING note that it is important to highlight that seasonal factors played a more substantial role than usual, as confirmed by the 0.6ppt difference between the raw data and the adjusted indicator (1.7% Y/Y) due to fewer working days.
  • According to the preliminary statement, the margin of error for the rapid estimates (15 days earlier than usual) could be as high as +0.2ppt compared to the detailed data. ING say this means that, despite the slight upside surprise we've seen today, this could be reversed when the second estimate is finally released on June 4.