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ING Say NBP Can Cut Rates in September Given Current Rate of Disinflation

POLAND
  • Following today’s headline inflation data (+11.5% y/y), ING estimate that core inflation was 11.2% y/y, down from 11.5% y/y in May.
  • At this rate of decline, ING say we will see CPI at 9.8% y/y in August, so they think the NBP can cut rates in September. By year-end, CPI inflation may slow closer to 7% y/y, they say, and the NBP's July inflation projection should reflect this. Hence another interest rate cut in October is also very likely.
  • ING remain concerned that the rate cuts in Poland will mean that it will take a long time for inflation to return to target. Their models indicate that core inflation may stabilise around 5% y/y in 2024-25 given, for example, the tight labour market.
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