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ING View PLN as Unattractive; HUF & CZK Favoured

CEE FX
  • PLN: The zloty should remain relatively unattractive in the CEE space for short-term trading as the local situation comes to the fore as global financial stresses fade, in ING's view. They say EUR/PLN is unlikely to exceed technical resistance at 4.76 in April.
  • HUF: The NBH has made it clear that easing is not on the table, which should keep FX carry by far the highest in the region, ING say. The decline in risk aversion, higher EUR/USD and lower energy prices provide perfect conditions for a forint rally in the coming weeks. Together with the CZK, HUF remains ING’s favourite CEE currency in the current market conditions.
  • CZK: ING say the central bank's statement is supportive and implies that the koruna is safe in the event of a global sell-off. Moreover, with the prospect of higher rates for a longer period of time, a solid FX carry is also guaranteed. Overall, ING believe that the koruna offers very decent risk/reward.
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