ING write "no flipping of the coin, yet......>

EUROPE: ING write "no flipping of the coin, yet. While the EPP has remained the

largest party, it does not feel like the case for Manfred Weber as Commission

president has become stronger nor weaker. It will now depend on coalition

building in the new Parliament. The Greens, for example, are a strong supporter

of the Spitzenkandidaten concept (lead candidate of a party), while Macron has

frequently hinted at letting this concept go. The entire concept is not

enshrined in any laws and in the end it is government leaders calling the shots.

However, diverting from the Spitzenkandidaten concept would be a clear blow for

European Parliament and could lead to a long approval process as the EP

officially has to approve the management of the next European Commission.

Today's results have not flipped the coin in any direction. In fact, this

musical chairs game could be a very long game with the only caveat that the

current president of the European Commission could stay on as a caretaker. This

is something that the European Treaties clearly does not allow for the ECB

presidency. European leaders will meet on Tuesday. Expect high phone invoices in

many European capitals until then."