Initial unemployment claims were well above.>

US DATA: Initial unemployment claims were well above expectations in the 

Jan 26 holiday wk, +53k to 253k (high since Sept 30, 2017) vs 218k 

expected, reflecting seasonal adjustment difficulties and increased 

filings by government contractors in a week where NSA claims would be 

expected to plunge. The rebound partially makes up for the decades low 

200k level in the previous week. There were no states estimated.

- The bottom line is that the claims data should be taken with a grain 

of salt until the shutdown and seasonal issues common in Jan shake out.

- NSA claims were -19,569 in the Jan 26 wk, vs -71,347 seasonal factors 

expected in the holiday-shortened week. 

- The 4-wk moving avg +5,000 to 220,250 in the Jan 26 wk. The avg would 

rise further next week if there is no change from this week's headline 

figure as the 216k level in Jan 5 week rolls out, but a decline in the 

headline number is likely next week as the effects of seasonal 

adjustment difficulties shake out and government shutdown ended Jan 25.

- Initial claims for federal employees in the Jan 19 week -10,680 to 

14,739, still well above 1,004 a year ago. It should remain elevated for 

one more week. 

- Continuing claims +69k to 1.782m in the Jan 19 wk (high since Apr 28 

wk), while the 4-wk avg +8k to 1.738m. The insured rate of unemployment 

was unch from 1.2% in the previous week, still below 1.4% a year ago.