Insecurity Could Delay Nigeria Election-Commission Chair

Chair of Nigeria's Election Commission Mahmood Yakubu has warned that insecurity and potential political violence could result in the postponement or even cancellation of the 25 February presidential election. Given Nigeria's position as one of the top 10 oil exporters in the world and Africa's largest economy and most populous nation, significant political unrest could have significant economic, financial market, and security implications beyond the country's borders.

• The outcome of the election remains hard to call. Establishment politicians Bola Tinbu from outgoing President Muhammadu Buhari's APC and Akitu Abubakar from the main opposition PDP seen as frontrunners. However, Peter Obi from the Labour Party seen as gaining momentum with younger, progressive Nigerians.
• Religious, political, or tribal violence taking place in the run-up to or aftermath of the election risks further deterring investment in Nigeria's oil sector, already struggling with significant insurgent activity in the Niger Delta.
• Nigeria's north-western and north-eastern states have long suffered from significant security threats from Islamist terrorist groups such as Boko Haram. Meanwhile, in the southeast of the country separatists seeking an independent Biafra have engaged in a renewed insurgency since 2021 decades after the end of the civil war fought over the same issue.