NORWAY
Norwegian mainland GDP was -0.4% Q/Q in Q4, after a stronger-than-expected 0.5% in Q3. On an annual basis, growth was 0.5% Y/Y (vs 1.4% prior). The quarterly reading was below Norges Bank and consensus expectations of 0.3% and the Q4 Regional Network Survey’s output expectations of 0.2%. All else equal, this will have a dovish impact on the March MPR rate path, potentially offsetting the effects of yesterday’s higher-than-expected CPI-ATE reading.
- Headline GDP fell 0.6% Q/Q (vs a two tenth upwardly revised 1.6% prior) and 0.3% Y/Y (vs +3.7% prior).
- However, we note inventories fell almost 50% Q/Q in Q4, unwinding Q3’s 75% sequential increase. Inventories alone pulled down headline GDP by 0.9 points.
- Household consumption growth was stagnant at 0.0% Q/Q (vs -0.1% prior). Goods consumption rebounded to 0.8% Q/Q after a weak -1.4% in Q3, while services consumption eased to 0.4% Q/Q (vs 1.3% prior). On an annual basis, consumption rose 1.7% Y/Y (vs 1.7% prior), above Norges Bank’s 1.2% projection.
- Government expenditure rose 0.3% Q/Q (vs 0.6% prior), while aggregate gross fixed capital formation was 0.2% Q/Q (vs 1.6% prior). Statistics Norway highlights notable revisions to GFCF through 2023/2024 (quarterly revisions between +0.5 and -2.6 percentage points in the period from Q1 to Q3 2024), owing to new statistics being incorporated into the National Accounts.
- Mainland investment was weak at -0.9% Q/Q (vs 1.0% prior). Within this, business investment rose 1.4% Q/Q (vs -1.4% prior) while residential investment fell 8.1% Q/Q (vs -5.2% prior). On an annual basis, residential investment was in line with Norges projections (-18.9% Y/Y) while business investment was weaker (-3.0% Y/Y vs -2.5% expected).
- Mainland exports rose 3.1% Q/Q and 4.3% Y/Y (the latter three tenths above Norges Bank’s projection).
- Imports were soft at -0.7% Q/Q (vs 3.5% prior), though rose 6.0% Y/Y.
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