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- In the past few months, one major factor behind the rise in inflationary pressures globally has been the significant year-on-year change in oil prices following the April 2020 crash.
- As a reminder, headline inflation in the US has reached 5% in May, its highest level since August 2008, and investors have been increasingly concerned the spike in inflation in inflation may not be transitory, with prices gradually starting to feed through wages.
- This chart shows the strong relationship between the 6M change in the YoY change in Brent prices with the 6M change in CPI inflation (1M lag).
- With oil prices expecting to remain steady or move slightly higher in the coming months, the YoY change will fall significantly, implying that inflation is closed to its peak.