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ISM Manufacturing PMI vs. SP500

US
  • In the past few months, we have seen that business sentiment indexes have risen to multi year highs in most of the developed and EM economies, implying that the trend in risky assets should continue in the near term.
  • For instance, despite the recent decrease, US ISM manufacturing PMI is still standing at an extremely elevated level above 60 (far above the 50-line threshold that separates growth from contraction).
  • However, the chart shows that these business sentiment surveys have been very sensitive to equity markets.
  • With central banks preparing for the 'global tapering', global liquidity will decelerate in the medium term, limiting the upside gain in equities.
  • Can business sentiment and consumer spending indexes stay at current levels if the stock market remains flat in the coming months?

Source: Bloomberg/MNI

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