ITALY DATA
Italy's final Q3 GDP figures confirmed the flash print at 0.0% Q/Q (+0.2% Q2) and +0.4% Y/Y (+0.6% Q2). The details of the release, which were only released today, look subdued with investment in particular being hit.
- Household consumption sounded encouraging with a strong 1.4% Q/Q increase in Q3 but it was only enough for a 0.4% increase in Y/Y terms.
- Gross fixed investment was weak at -1.2 Q/Q, a third consecutive negative quarter, concentrated in "machinery and equipment and weapon systems" at -3.9% Q/Q and -6.2% Y/Y with negative longer-term growth implications.
- Transport equipment investment was particularly weak at -5.9% Q/Q and -10.2% Y/Y.
- Today's final manufacturing PMI for November flags suggests no scope for a letting up of these pressures in Q4. It saw incoming new orders contract at fastest pace so far this year, the press release notes that manufacturers flagged the downturn in Germany, specifically, as being a trigger for the "steep" fall in new export orders, and the automotive industry has been hit particularly hard. The latter includes competition from China as well as low demand for electric vehicles.
- Exports growth of -0.9% Q/Q and -1.0% Y/Y tallies with this weak external backdrop owing likely in part to German weakness although imports are a touch more encouraging at +1.2% Q/Q even if they were still only -0.6% Y/Y.
- Finally, "With regard to added value, industry is down by 0.7%, agriculture is stable and services are up by 0.2%. For input and labor costs, hours worked are up by 0.2%, job positions by 0.5% and per capita income by 0.9%.", Istat adds.
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