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J.P.Morgan note that "persistent capital inflows are supporting THB, allowing it to decouple from the sharp deterioration in Thailand's current account surplus. On CA metrics alone, USD/THB should be around 8% higher versus current levels, around a THB33-34 handle. Thai residents' repatriation of foreign assets has been an unusual, but potentially durable, currency support - triggered in part by this year's sharp decline in domestic incomes. A loss of these capital inflows risks catalyzing a weaker THB more consistent with current account dynamics. But in an environment of USD weakness we are not outright THB bears: the potential for positive news on a COVID-19 vaccine or an incremental resumption of tourism should eventually support Thailand's external balances, which already look past the worst. On the flip side, the case for sustained USD/THB declines is tempered by the increasing likelihood of official intervention. The BoT tends to follow a well-trodden interventionist path in response to TWI strength, and even after recent declines, the THB NEER is only a few percent shy of its post-1997 highs. Political unrest presents a lingering wildcard and the noise level is likely to rise further. But past experience suggests that a mix of capital flight and unwinding of foreigners' equity longs are necessary for sustained baht weakness; neither condition is yet in place From a strategy perspective, we prefer to express an UW via Thai rates; relative THB underperformance can linger, but capital inflows cap the case for outright baht shorts when the potential for further current account deterioration looks limited."