J.P. Morgan FX Technicals On AUD

The US bank continues to see a bearish technical backdrop for the AUD. Rebounds into the 0.6400-0.6500 region are likely to be faded, with potential for a deeper correction over coming months into the low 0.6000 region, see below for more details.

"AUD/USD continues to base near the 0.6382 Oct 78.6% retrace and 0.6287 Jun-Jul range objective on the heels of the 2023 bear market (Figure 5). On a near-term basis, we think rebounds fade near the 0.6406 50-day moving average, 0.648 Jun channel center line, and 0.6523 Aug-Sep range high. We expect the base building process to continue in the fourth quarter, and think a deeper test of range support is possible over that period that includes the 0.62 Feb-Jun equal swings objective and 0.617 Oct 2022 low into the fall in the months ahead. A break would seek next support at the 0.6042 Mar 2020 78.6% retrace and 0.6023 Feb 2021-Jan 2023 .618 swing objective. On the upside, the first layer of medium-term resistance sits at the 0.6596 Jun low. A break through that resistance would suggest the trend had reversed earlier than we anticipated."