- PolicyPolicy
Exclusive interviews with leading policymakers that convey the true policy message that impacts markets.
LATEST FROM POLICY: - G10 MarketsG10 Markets
Real-time insight on key fixed income and fx markets.
Launch MNI Podcasts - Emerging MarketsEmerging Markets
Real-time insight of emerging markets in CEMEA, Asia and LatAm region
- CommoditiesCommodities
Real-time insight of oil & gas markets
- Data
- MNI ResearchMNI Research
Actionable insight on monetary policy, balance sheet and inflation with focus on global issuance. Analysis on key political risk impacting the global markets.
- About Us
Real-time Actionable Insight
Get the latest on Central Bank Policy and FX & FI Markets to help inform both your strategic and tactical decision-making.
Free AccessJ.P. Morgan Short KRW Basket Trade
"We recommend being short KRW vs USD, JPY, THB, IDR – this generally tracks the NEER.
Index-related inflows are unlikely to materialize until around 3Q23. Between energy prices and slipping exports, KRW stands to underperform in 2023. The financial account should add further strain, from retailer demand for foreign equity and FDI, while we assume NPS will tactically buy/sell dollars depending on market conditions for KRW.
Before the dollar reversed course in October 2022, KRW had depreciated the most in Asia FX. We noted at the time that KRW weakness was overdone and out of sync with Korea’s BOP fundamentals, which favoured depreciation but not as much as had occurred. In the last few months, KRW has been Asia’s best performer after THB, but is now perched precariously before an unfavourable BOP outlook for 2023. In our base case, we see USD/KRW crossing 1,300 over the next few months and even the bull case for KRW portends stabilization. As such, we enter a short KRW trade versus USD, JPY, THB, IDR equally weighted – this basket broadly tracks the KRW NEER."
To read the full story
Sign up now for free access to this content.
Please enter your details below and select your areas of interest.
Why Subscribe to
MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.