J.P. Morgan Stays Constructive On Indonesia Post The Election

The US Bank updates it views on Indonesia post Wednesday's election. It stays constructive on equities and local fixed income.

J.P. Morgan: "Based on their vision and mission statement, we would expect a Prabowo-Gibran win to support policy continuity with outgoing President Jokowi’s key policy agendas, including EV Ecosystem push, Metal downstream, Green energy transition, New Capital City, Omnibus Law, with possible additional focus on Food Program, defense security, and creative economy, among others. The SOE transformation initiatives, especially within SOE Banks, would also likely be continued, in our view. We believe the equity market could see a positive reaction on more clarity around a first-round election result. Despite cumulative foreign equity flow of US$1bn+ already in the past 3M, we believe there could more upside as JCI could be getting closer to our bull case scenario of Rp7,900 (vs. base case of Rp7,500).

On Equity Strategy, we stay OW Banks (BMRI, BBNI, BBCA), Consumer (AMRT, ICBP, MAPI), and Communication Services (TLKM) as preferred sectors.

For Macro: Beyond the initial results, our focus will be on policy continuity, which should be revealed in time with appointments to key cabinet posts - Minister of Finance, SOE, Energy and Economic Affairs. In particular, although Indonesia has a 3% limit on the consolidated fiscal deficit, we will be watchful of capital investment below the line, which in the past has led to net debt issuance materially above the deficit.

View from EM Asia Local Market Strategy: A near-term positive, with focus now potentially set to be on longer-term agenda; stay OW FX and rates in the GBI-EM Model Portfolio, and hold a long 3y INDOGB (FX hedged) in outright trades."