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Jan TLTRO Repayments Seen Falling Sharply Vs Dec


The results of the latest round of TLTRO repayments come out at 1105GMT. A figure in the range of E100-225bln is a rough estimate of the consensus expectation.

  • The Bloomberg survey median expected takeup is E213bln (ranging from E75-450bln).
  • The ECB's December Survey of Monetary Analysts showed a median E130bln expected to be repaid in the January window, with 25th-75th percentiles of E55-250bln - but that appears to take into account survey responses before the Dec window takeup of E447.5bln came in at the high end of expectations (E236-496bln, E311bln median).
  • So given the high Dec takeup, it's likely the expectation for January will be a little smaller than the ECB survey suggests.

ECB Survey of Monetary Analysts, Published Dec 19Source: ECB

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