MNI BRIEF: Canada Commits To Just One Of Three Fiscal Anchors

MNI BRIEF: German Insolvency Rate Slows, 2025 Pickup Expected

MNI BRIEF: Brazil Not Even Close To Fiscal Dominance - David

CORRECTED-MNI BRIEF: Brazil Inflation Rises To 4.87% In Nov

MNI China Daily Summary: Tuesday, December 10

MNI: USDA: 2024/2025 CORN PRODUCTION EST 15.14B BSL

EZ/UK T-Bill Calendar: 12-Month BOT Auction on Wednesday

EZ/UK Bond Supply Calendar: 4.25% Jul-34 Gilt Due Wednesday

MNI EXCLUSIVE: EU-Mercosur Deal Close, But Likely Short-Lived - Officials

AUSTRALIA: 2025 Election Outcome Looking More Uncertain According To Newspoll

© 1982-2024 MNI. All rights reserved.
Terms | Privacy
Log Out
Free Trial

January CPI Expected to Moderate, Focus to Look Beyond Median and Trim Measures

CANADA DATA
  • Markets expect Canadian CPI to moderate in January – with headline Y/Y at 3.3% (Prev. 3.4%), 0.4% M/M NSA (Prev. -0.3%). The trim core measure is expected to slow to 3.6% from 3.7% prior.
  • BoC communications from late January centred on how the discussion is shifting away from whether the policy rate is restrictive enough to how long it needs to stay at the current level, a point reiterated by Dep Gov Mendes on Tuesday. Mendes added that inflation is still too high and underlying inflation pressures are still too broad.
  • This brings us to Gov. Macklem’s remarks at the January press conference when MNI asked about the shift in language to underlying rather than core inflation. “It’s more of a concept than a measure and reflects a number of things. The Bank's preferred measures of core inflation (CPI-trim, CPI-median) are a very important element), but we also look at other measures such as CPIxFE, CPIX and the breadth of price gains. Those are some of the key things we’re looking at as we assess the trend - we’re looking for continued evidence that inflationary pressures are easing with clear downward momentum.”
  • To this end, we expect focus on metrics beyond just the BoC’s previously preferred median and trim measures. Different metrics have been pointing to a wide range recently, with the average of median and trim at 3.8% annualized over six months and CPIxFE at 3.7%, but CPIX within the 1-3% target band at just 2.5%.
Homepagemarkets-real-timeBulletMarketsFixed Income BulletsForeign Exchange BulletsCanada Bank of Canada Market News

To read the full story

Close

Why MNI

MNI is the leading provider

of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.

Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.