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January Inflation Data Due After Market Close

COLOMBIA
  • Headline annual inflation is expected to decline to 8.37% from 9.28% in December. For core, the Bloomberg survey sees the annual figure dipping to 9.69% from 10.33%. The data will be crucial for the central bank who after a relatively hawkish 25bp cut in January have signalled that larger adjustments may be forthcoming, dependent on the evolution of the data. Figures are expected at 2300GMT/1800ET:
    • Jan. CPI Y/y, est. 8.37%, prior 9.28%; M/m est. 0.95%, prior 0.45%
    • Jan Core CPI Y/y, est. 9.69%, prior 10.33%; M/m est. 1.01%, prior 0.66%
  • Itaú expect inflation to rise by 0.92% MoM, boosted by transport (following the pause in the fuel price adjustment in December, fuel prices increased in January by $600), housing and utilities, while food price pressure is contained. In annual terms, inflation would fall to 8.36% and forecast Core CPI (ex-food) at 1.02% (9.69% YoY).
  • Scotiabank project that inflation fell more aggressively from 9.28% in December to 8.17% last month in headline terms and from 10.33% to 9.47% in core terms (median: 9.69%). The steep deceleration from December owes to favourable base effects in food, merchandises, and indexed prices that will be evident over the balance of Q1, which Scotiabank expect will end with a 6.6% y/y pace in March.
    • The rapid drop in inflation in today’s data and February figures out on March 7 should prompt a larger cut by BanRep at its March 22 meeting.
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