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January Inflation Data Due At 2300GMT / 1800ET

COLOMBIA
  • A brief reminder that headline annual inflation is expected to decline to 8.37% from 9.28% in December. For core, the Bloomberg survey sees the annual figure dipping to 9.69% from 10.33%. The data will be crucial for the central bank who after a relatively hawkish 25bp cut in January have signalled that larger adjustments may be forthcoming, dependent on the evolution of the data. Figures are expected at 2300GMT/1800ET:
    • Jan. CPI Y/y, est. 8.37%, prior 9.28%; M/m est. 0.95%, prior 0.45%
    • Jan Core CPI Y/y, est. 9.68%, prior 10.33%; M/m est. 1.00%, prior 0.66%
  • Itaú expect inflation to rise by 0.92% MoM, boosted by transport (following the pause in the fuel price adjustment in December, fuel prices increased in January by $600), housing and utilities, while food price pressure is contained. In annual terms, inflation would fall to 8.36% and forecast Core CPI (ex-food) at 1.02% (9.69% YoY).
  • Scotiabank project that inflation fell more aggressively from 9.28% in December to 8.17% last month in headline terms and from 10.33% to 9.47% in core terms (median: 9.69%). The rapid drop in inflation in today’s data and February figures out on March 7 should prompt a larger cut by BanRep at its March 22 meeting.
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