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US DATA PREVIEW: Jefferies economist Ward McCarthy noted September employment
data next Friday "is going to be tough to parse, given the distortions from the
hurricanes. Also Asia, who we've been taking direction from these past 2 weeks,
is going to be quiet with National Golden Week in China and there are no
auctions," he said. "So, we expect that we will take direction from the
headlines once again as we look for more details regarding tax reform and
developments out of Europe."
- He adds Sept. employment at 8:30am ET Friday, Oct. 6 will be "distorted by the
hurricanes, but the distortions will be temporary and not have a lasting effect
on a labor market that remains solid. Given the nature of the data collection
for the establishment (payrolls) and household (unemployment rate) surveys, it
is quite possible that the 2 surveys will be affected in different ways by the
hurricane distortions in the months ahead."
- Jefferies expects Sept. NFP jobs will "decline 45K, with private sector
payrolls down 25K," and "0.3% month/month increase in average hourly earnings
combined with a 2.5% YoY rise in AHE" and "a 4.5% unemployment rate," he said.