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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
US
- In the past few months, the risk-on environment combined with the rise in optimism over the global reopening have sent business surveys to record highs in the DM markets.
- Therefore, a variety of these business sentiment indexes (i.e. ISM manufacturing PMI, NFIB..) have been acting as strong leading indicators of core inflation in the US; most of them have been pricing in much higher core CPI prints in the coming months.
- An interesting question that has been haunting economists' mind recently is to see whether the surge in prices will at some point feed through to wages and make inflation permanent (vs. 'transitory' as policymakers currently expect).
- The chart below shows an interesting relationship between the Job Openings Rate (6M lead) and the Employment and Costs Index (ECI), which we use as our 'wage growth' variable.
- Interestingly, with Job Openings Rate rising to a record high of 5.3% in the first quarter, wage growth, which was of 2.6% YoY in Q1, is expected to continue to increase in the coming quarters, pressuring US policymakers to start a tightening cycle.
Source: Bloomberg /MNI
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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