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Jobless Claims Mostly In Line,  Continuing Hold NSA Relative Climb

US DATA
  • Initial jobless claims record a seasonally adjusted 218k (cons 220k) in the week to Feb 3 after last week’s surprise increase was revised a little higher to 227k (initial 224k).
  • The four-week average pushes to 212k, +3k on the week and up from a latest low of 203k in Jan 19. It’s still historically low though vs the 2019av 218k and 2019 single week low 197k for comparison.
  • The -31k decline in the NSA data to 233k is sharp on the week, taking the level back to a low figure for this time of year as it reverses the prior week's push higher.
  • Continuing claims also close to expectations at a seasonally adjusted 1871k (cons 1875k) in the week to Jan 27 after a large push higher to 1894k (initial 1898k).
  • NSA continuing claims also pulled back (-44k to 2137k) but it’s not enough to unwind the sharp increase the prior week, with claims still tracking above 2022 and 2023 equivalent levels even if they’re still at the low end of pre-pandemic ranges.

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