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Jobless Claims Surprise Sees 2024 Cut Expectations Build

STIR
  • Fed Funds implied rates for the next two FOMC meetings are little changed on the jobless claims data.
  • They do however see a larger decline further out and hold the bulk of the move despite the above caveats to some distortion from New York in particular.
  • Cumulative cuts from 5.33% effective: 3bp Jun, 9.5bp Jul, 23bp Sep, 33bp Nov and 47bp Dec.
  • The latter has built from 44bps pre-claims and 41bps prior to Friday’s NFP report.
  • Next week’s inflation data remain firmly in focus, with PPI on Tue before the main event in CPI on Wed.

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