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Jobs Seen Notably Less Plentiful

US DATA
  • Ahead of next week's payrolls report, the Conference Board labor differential of consumer perceptions of jobs plentiful less jobs hard to get saw the sharpest decline since Dec’20 and prior to that Apr’20 (plentiful 45.2 -4pts, hard to get 12.7 +1.6pts).
  • The net 32.5 is the lowest since Apr’21 but that only leaves it on a par with the 2019 average and close to pre-pandemic highs.
  • It is consistent with the miss in the overall consumer confidence index (from 107.8 to 102.5, 106.0 expected), led by the present situation index falling more than 10pts for also its weakest since Apr’21.
  • Expectations saw a smaller decline on the month but that still meant an eighth month below 80 (having pre-revisions seen a small increase above it in Sep), “suggesting recession risks appear to be rising”.

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