US: Johnson Remains Favourite To Retain Speakership On Janaury 3

House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) appears likely to win re-election to speaker on January 3, despite criticism from President-elect Donald Trump for his handling of a short-term government funding package. According to Polymarket, Johnson is assigned a 73% implied probability of retaining his gavel, down from roughly 95% ahead of the funding crisis.

• On January 3, Johnson will require near-unanimous support from House Republicans. Consistent with previous speaker votes when the minority party votes for their own candidate, Democrats are expected to whip against Johnson’s re-election. House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-NY) told MSNBC on Sunday that there is a "real risk" of Johnson failing to become speaker, adding “there will be no Democrats available to save him or the extreme MAGA Republicans from themselves…”
• One Republican Rep, Thomas Massie (K-KY), who backed an effort to oust Johnson earlier this year, is again likely to oppose Johnson’s bid, with a handful of other hardline conservatives reportedly undecided.   
• The baseline expectation is that Johnson is likely to be insulated from a major challenge to his speakership as there is no replacement candidate with a clear path to the gavel. Trump’s decision to endorse or oppose could smooth the path for Johnson’s re-election. Trump is likely to balance his dissatisfaction with Johnson’s failure to legislate a debt ceiling suspension with the necessity of stability in the House.

 Figure 1: Next Speaker of the House of Representatives