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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
UK
Latest opinion polling from YouGov shows Prime Minister Boris Johnson and his centre-right Conservative Party gaining back some ground lost during a disastrous December for the PM and the gov't. However, the main opposition centre-left Labour Party remain ahead and its leader Sir Keir Starmer retains the position as most preferred PM.
- Latest Westminster voting intention: Lab: 37% (+1), Con: 33% (+3), Lib Dem: 10% (-2), Green: 6% (-2), SNP: 5% (-1), Reform UK: 5% (n/c). Fieldwork: 6-7 Jan, chgs w/ 19-20 Dec.
- Which of the following do you think would make the best Prime Minister?: Keir Starmer: 33% (-1), Boris Johnson: 28% (+6), Don't know: 36%. Fieldwork: 6-7 Jan. Chgs w/19-20 Dec.
- Betting markets have shown a shift over the past week, with the expected date of Johnson's exit from Downing St. moving from 2022 to 2024 or later according to bettors (see chart below).
- The decision not to impose stricter COVID restrictions in England appears to have mollified a number of previously disgruntled Conservative backbench MPs, seemingly reducing the risk of Johnson facing a leadership challenge (at least in the short term).
Chart 1. Betting Market Implied Probability of PM Boris Johnson's Exit from Downing St.
Source: Betdata.io, Betfair, MNI
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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