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JPM: Below Consensus For Payrolls, Private Service Growth Of 60k

US OUTLOOK/OPINION
  • JPMorgan see NFP growth of 150k in November (cons 185k), matching the change reported for October but masking a decelerating underlying trend for job growth.
  • Most of the 30k UAW strike reductions in October should be reversed along with a boost from the end of the SAG-AFTRA strike.
  • “We expect the private service sector to show slowing net hiring in November even with some positive “strike effects,” with 60k jobs added in November.”
  • “We also see continued weakness in indicators related to temp help hiring and we expect the trend in transportation employment to continue to head lower, in part because the seasonal factors expect a big ramp up in hiring for the holiday season that might not be matched by the actualized hiring.”
  • They see another solid gain for public sector employment with 45k in November.
  • “The ADP figure was pretty close to our expectations for the private sector data in the BLS, but we should keep in mind that a) the ADP data are not always a reliable signal for the BLS data and b) we think that the end of strikes will likely boost the BLS employment count but that these strike effects do not show up in the same way in the ADP data.”
  • “The UAW strike may also have depressed the average workweek” in October, and for November eye a 0.1 increase to 34.4.
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