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JPM economists said that Developed..........>

US VIEW
US VIEW: JPM economists said that Developed Markets' "central bank risk
assessment is becoming more balanced." They add "perceived risks often are a
small factor in policy setting but they have loomed large in recent years. For
the DM, GDP is on track to deliver a 4th consecutive year of above-trend growth
and labor markets are operating close to full employment. Despite this
performance, central bank balance sheets continue to expand and real policy
rates remain in negative territory."
- JPM economists added "while persistently below-target inflation can partly
explain central banks' stances, their hesitancy to normalize is also linked to
concerns not reflected in modal forecasts that continue to see inflation moving
higher. Over 2014-16, weak EM growth and falling oil prices raised concerns
about the fragility of the global expansion and the stability of medium-term
inflation expectations. In addition, uncertainty related to key structural
parameters (equilibrium interest rates and NAIRU) generally tilted in a dovish
direction. Finally, the zero interest rate constraint generated an asymmetric
loss function, reinforcing the case for delayed normalization."

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