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JPM: Enough Goods News In CPI To Keep BoC On Hold, But Eagerly Watching GDP

CANADA
  • JPM saw “enough good news” in yesterday’s CPI report to keep the BoC on hold at the next monetary policy announcement on June 7th.
  • They also expect the annual pace of inflation will resume its deceleration, sharing the BoC’s view that inflation will decelerate to 3% Y/Y over the next few months.
  • However, “as the Bank maintains a strong hawkish bias, the risks of more monetary policy tightening are apparent”. •
  • “Resilient economic growth and persistently elevated core inflation would raise concerns that monetary was not restrictive enough.”
  • Q1 real GDP growth released May 31 is the next important data point. Growth significantly above the BoC's forecast of 2.3%,saar could make June a “very difficult decision for the BoC on whether monetary policy was restrictive enough and whether it is best to raise the policy rate”.
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