Free Trial

JPM Raise 4Q21 GDP Estimate On Trade Data

CANADA
  • The net trade drag on real GDP growth in Q4 tracked much smaller than JPM expected despite real merchandise exports falling 0.7% M/M (albeit after two strong months) and import volumes rising 2.5% M/M in Dec.
  • At a drag of ~1pp, it sees JPM raise their 4Q21 real GDP forecast from 5.8% to 6.5% annualised.
  • “The strength in 4Q import volumes also supports the narrative that inventories were being rebuilt significantly.”

To read the full story

Close

Why MNI

MNI is the leading provider

of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.

Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.