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JPM Shift First Fed Cut To Sept Before Quarterly Pace Thereafter

US OUTLOOK/OPINION
  • "Today’s report is, to use Powell’s words, “good news” and we now think this paves the way for a first cut in September (previously November), followed by quarterly cuts thereafter.
  • Given that Powell has also said the decision to make the first cut will be “consequential” why shouldn’t we expect cuts at every meeting thereafter?
  • We certainly think that’s an underappreciated risk, particularly if the labor market cools further. However, if the immaculate disinflation signal in this morning’s claims figures plays out, then the Fed should be able to take a more leisurely journey back to neutral."
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  • "Today’s report is, to use Powell’s words, “good news” and we now think this paves the way for a first cut in September (previously November), followed by quarterly cuts thereafter.
  • Given that Powell has also said the decision to make the first cut will be “consequential” why shouldn’t we expect cuts at every meeting thereafter?
  • We certainly think that’s an underappreciated risk, particularly if the labor market cools further. However, if the immaculate disinflation signal in this morning’s claims figures plays out, then the Fed should be able to take a more leisurely journey back to neutral."