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JPMorgan Forecasting Year-End Rate of 8.25%

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  • Back in March, BanRep Board members agreed that the downward inflation trend merited accelerating the easing cycle to 50bp. However, the Board majority warned about the limits to a more aggressive monetary policy relaxation pace.
  • Against this backdrop, JP Morgan maintain as base case the BanRep trimming the policy rate by 50bp this week, driving the level to 11.75%.
  • JPM maintain as base case an acceleration of the easing cycle in 2H24, and project the policy rate level for Dec-24 at 8.25%. Yet, they acknowledge the forecast risks are weighted towards higher levels.
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  • Back in March, BanRep Board members agreed that the downward inflation trend merited accelerating the easing cycle to 50bp. However, the Board majority warned about the limits to a more aggressive monetary policy relaxation pace.
  • Against this backdrop, JP Morgan maintain as base case the BanRep trimming the policy rate by 50bp this week, driving the level to 11.75%.
  • JPM maintain as base case an acceleration of the easing cycle in 2H24, and project the policy rate level for Dec-24 at 8.25%. Yet, they acknowledge the forecast risks are weighted towards higher levels.