MNI China Daily Summary: Thursday, July 25

MNI BRIEF: Japan Govt Keeps Econ View, Cuts Exports

MNI: PBOC Conducts CNY200 Bln via MLF Thurs; Rate Cut

MNI: PBOC Sets Yuan Parity Lower At 7.1321 Thurs; -1.92% Y/Y

CHINA PBOC CONDUCTS CNY235.1 BILLION VIA 7-DAY REVERSE REPOS THURS

CHINA SETS YUAN CENTRAL PARITY AT 7.1321 THURS VS 7.1358

CBI Price Expectations for Three Months Ahead Lowest Since December 2020

MNI: UK JUL CBI INDUSTRIAL TRENDS TOTAL ORDERS -32

Broad-Based IFO Weakness Reinforces Narrative of Recovery Stall

RPT-MNI: Canada Sticks To Fiscal Anchors, Spends Chunk Of Windfall

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JPMorgan on Tomorrow’s CPI Data - Flagging Goods Is Not Enough

MEXICO
  • The preliminary CPI for September should start to more clearly evidence that the road to lower inflation is set to be tougher ahead, according to JPMorgan.
  • JPM expect headline prices to rise 0.23% 2w/2w in 1H September, with core prices up 0.25%. This would drive year-ago inflation rates to 4.42% (from 4.6%) for headline and to 5.76% (from 5.96%) for core.
  • As JPM have been highlighting, it is more relevant—particularly at this stage—to look at sequential inflation, especially core inflation. To this point, they expect further positive news on goods inflation: mapping our forecast for 1H September to the full month would yield another subpar 0.2%m/m, sa increase.
  • By contrast, JPM expect services to firm 0.5%m/m, sa from 0.4% in August. Unsurprisingly, this would push %3m annualized services inflation back above 5%, marking a strong divergence between goods and services price gains that should keep overall core prices’ 3m3m annualized run rate stuck above 4%.
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