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JPY Extends Hot Streak to 5% Off July Lows

FOREX
  • Headed into the NY crossover, JPY is comfortably the strongest performer in G10, with JPY extending the week's outperformance and putting USD/JPY well through the 50-dma at 134.27. The pair now eyes 131.50 as the next key support, with rate differentials clearly remaining the primary driver. The shift lower in the front-end of the US yield curve continues to exert its influence, with USD/JPY now close to 5% off the multi-year highs printed in mid July.
  • French and Italian GDP data surprised on the upside this morning, printing at 4.2% YoY (expected 3.7%) and 4.6% YoY (expected 3.7%) respectively. The EUR saw some brief support, trading to a high of 1.0254. Nonetheless, the push higher has now diminished, putting the pair broadly flat following July CPI data. EURUSD is still below the immediate resistance at 1.0278, the Jul 21 high. A break above this hurdle would once again resume short-term bullish conditions.
    Elsewhere, GBP is the poorest performer of the day, with GBP/USD erasing an early rally to trade in minor negative territory ahead of US hours. Data out this morning showed M4 money supply contracting at the fastest monthly pace since the pandemic this morning, with the Y/Y figure putting money supply growth at its slowest since 2019. Next support for GBP/USD crosses at yesterday's 1.2103 low as well as 1.2052, the 20-day EMA.
  • Focus looking forward turns to MNI Chicago PMI for July, at which markets expect a moderation to 55.0 from 56.0 previously. The University of Michigan release also takes focus, with the final revision of the inflation expectations component eyed in particular. There are no central bank speakers of note.
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