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JPY: USD/JPY Rally Still Doesn't Meet Intervention Criteria

JPY
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As noted earlier today, USD/JPY's rally has again pressed spot to the highest level since the '80s and the trade-weighted index to a fresh multi-decade low. Nonetheless, there remain several factors that could work against the Japanese authorities intervening at this stage:

  • The trigger for the late April intervention was the >5.5% rally in spot off the mid-April lows (and a 4% rally over the course of two weeks), helping define "disorderly" moves in currency markets. This trigger has not been reached on the latest move: USD/JPY has rallied 4.5% off the recent low (Jun04) and 2.5% over the past two weeks.
  • Realised vols are very subdued - one-week vols hold below 5 points (although this was also the case before the JPY rout on Apr29th), and liquidity across USDJPY appears to have been sufficient to contain intraday volatility successfully in recent weeks. 
  • Verbal warnings don't seem to have picked up in frequency or in terms of language used - Kanda reiterated last week that the government continue to watch the JPY "with a high level of urgency". 
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As noted earlier today, USD/JPY's rally has again pressed spot to the highest level since the '80s and the trade-weighted index to a fresh multi-decade low. Nonetheless, there remain several factors that could work against the Japanese authorities intervening at this stage:

  • The trigger for the late April intervention was the >5.5% rally in spot off the mid-April lows (and a 4% rally over the course of two weeks), helping define "disorderly" moves in currency markets. This trigger has not been reached on the latest move: USD/JPY has rallied 4.5% off the recent low (Jun04) and 2.5% over the past two weeks.
  • Realised vols are very subdued - one-week vols hold below 5 points (although this was also the case before the JPY rout on Apr29th), and liquidity across USDJPY appears to have been sufficient to contain intraday volatility successfully in recent weeks. 
  • Verbal warnings don't seem to have picked up in frequency or in terms of language used - Kanda reiterated last week that the government continue to watch the JPY "with a high level of urgency".