Free Trial

July Exports Weaker Than Expected


July export data was weaker than expected for Singapore. For the month we fell -3.4%, versus +1.3% forecast. The prior read was +5.2%. In y/y terms we slipped to -20.2%, versus -14.3% forecast and -15.6% prior. We are above the January trough, but have unwound much of the bounce we saw through Q1/early Q2.

  • Electronic exports were down -26.1% y/y, versus -16.0% prior. This metric is also back close to earlier 2023 lows.
  • Exports to China fell back to -20.1% y/y in July, but were firmer to the US, +34.4%. Most other regions/countries saw negative y/y momentum in July.
  • Pharmaceuticals was one of the few bright spots, rebounding to +2.0%, from -34.0% y/y in June.
  • There remains decent wedge between the underlying export trend and SGD NEER y/y momentum, see the chart below. Whilst the NEER made fresh highs in July we are still losing ground in y/y terms. The weaker external backdrop, all else equal, suggests little need for further MAS tightening at this stage.

Fig 1: SGD NEER Y/Y Versus Export Growth Y/Y (Smoothed)

Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg

To read the full story



MNI is the leading provider

of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.

Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.