July Exports Weaker Than Expected

July export data was weaker than expected for Singapore. For the month we fell -3.4%, versus +1.3% forecast. The prior read was +5.2%. In y/y terms we slipped to -20.2%, versus -14.3% forecast and -15.6% prior. We are above the January trough, but have unwound much of the bounce we saw through Q1/early Q2.

• Electronic exports were down -26.1% y/y, versus -16.0% prior. This metric is also back close to earlier 2023 lows.
• Exports to China fell back to -20.1% y/y in July, but were firmer to the US, +34.4%. Most other regions/countries saw negative y/y momentum in July.
• Pharmaceuticals was one of the few bright spots, rebounding to +2.0%, from -34.0% y/y in June.
• There remains decent wedge between the underlying export trend and SGD NEER y/y momentum, see the chart below. Whilst the NEER made fresh highs in July we are still losing ground in y/y terms. The weaker external backdrop, all else equal, suggests little need for further MAS tightening at this stage.

Fig 1: SGD NEER Y/Y Versus Export Growth Y/Y (Smoothed)

Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg