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Free AccessTrade Deficit at Fresh Record High, Economic Confidence Sees Marginal Uptick
- TURKEY JUL TRADE BALANCE USD -10.69B (FCST -10.60B); JUN -8.20Br
- TURKEY AUG ECONOMIC CONFIDENCE 94.3; JUL 93.4
- The Turkish trade deficit was largely in line with expectations in July, widening to a record high of USD -10.69bln from -8.20bln in June. Year-to-date exports and imports expanded by 19.1% and 40.7% respectively, underpinning the deficit close to 2.5x that of July last year.
- Excluding energy and gold, the deficit was USD -2.94bln in July.
- The CBRT surprised the market in August with a 100bps cut in the repo rate, decreasing the benchmark rate to 13%, pushing real yields to deeper negative territory and continuing to weigh on the TRY in the medium term. This ultra-loose monetary policy appears to not yet have the desired effect of boosting the economy's manufacturing and export industry, as soaring energy import costs and the weak lira continue to see imports grow.
- Turkish economic confidence saw a marginal 0.9-point improvement in August, yet remains below the breakeven of 100. Consumer confidence rose by 6.1%, accounting for the bulk of the improvement, whilst manufacturing, services and retail confidence all dampened slightly.
- Little market reaction was seen on this data as it confirmed expectations.
Source: Turkstat
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Why MNI
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