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Jun Inflation Preview: Further Y/Y Softening On Base Effects

SPAIN DATA

Spain (11% of EZ HICP) 0800UK Thu 29 Jun. Consensus:

  • CPI: 1.7% Y/Y (3.2% prior) / 0.3% M/M (0.0% prior)
  • Core CPI: 5.5% Y/Y (6.1% prior)
  • HICP: 1.5% Y/Y (2.9% prior) / 0.4% M/M (-0.1% prior)
  • Main themes: Headline Y/Y seen dropping further on base effects despite M/M acceleration in energy prices (due largely to electricity base effects), with core Y/Y remaining well above headline. (See MNI's June Eurozone Inflation Preview for more detail)
Sell-Side analysts:
  • Goldman Sachs: HICP 1.4% Y/Y vs 2.9% May; and 3.3% Y/Y core. with 2.9% M/M energy prices (higher electricity), -0.8% M/M unprocessed food prices, +0.2% M/M processed food.
  • JPMorgan: 0.3% M/M, 1.6% Y/Y, HICP: 1.8%
  • Nomura: HICP: 1.5%
  • BofA: CPI: 1.8% (0.8% M/M)

Source: INE, MNI

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