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KC's George "Very Comfortable" W 50bp Hike Pace

FED

KC Fed Pres George playing down the middle with a CNBC interview, though leaning dovish overall compared w her historically hawkish-end-of-the-FOMC reputation.

  • She showed no inclination to hike 75bp ("I am very comfortable with doing 50 basis points because I see the combination of that balance sheet runoff taking place."), but when asked about whether the Funds rate could ultimately go as high as 4%, she wasn't particularly dismissive.
  • When asked about QT impact, said estimates were varied, but cited one study saying it could be equivalent to 150bp of short-term rate increases.
  • Didn't sound particularly concerned about the current volatility / downside in financial markets.
  • Very much wait-and-see on the path ahead: uncertainty about everything from the neutral rate to Americans' consumption patterns and supply chains.
  • Ultimately, ending the tightening cycle (in her words, in determining when "enough is enough") will require the Fed to see inflation level out and then decelerate.

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