MNI BRIEF: BOI Sees "Modest" Q2 EZ Growth Driven By Services

MNI China Daily Summary: Friday, July 12

MNI BRIEF: China June M2 SlowsTo Record Low For Third Month

MNI BRIEF: China Steel Export Growth Slows In June

MNI: PBOC Conducts CNY2 Bln Via OMO Fri; Liquidity Unchanged

CHINA PBOC CONDUCTS CNY2 BILLION VIA 7-DAY REVERSE REPOS FRI

MNI: BAKER HUGHES US RIG COUNT 584; OIL RIGS 478; GAS RIGS 100

MNI: USDA: 2024/2025 CORN PRODUCTION EST 15.10B BSL

EZ/UK T-Bill Calendar: Germany, Netherlands, France Due Monday

RPT-MNI: Canada Sticks To Fiscal Anchors, Spends Chunk Of Windfall

MNI BRIEF: Poilievre Calls QE 'Scam' And Would Limit BOC Remit

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Key appearances this week

BOE
  • Last week's Treasury Select Committee hearing on the MPR gave little new information away but it was interesting that Governor Bailey mentioned that we would have a lot more information on the labour market in the six weeks before the December meeting. In the post-MPR press conference Bailey had failed to be drawn on when there would be enough data in order to make a decision on whether to hike or not, but these comments seemed to suggest that December does very much remain on the table as an option for the MPC (or at least for Bailey). Bailey is due to appear at the Lords EAC hearing on CBDCs on Tuesday (in which he is unlikely to discuss monpol) and then he will be "in discussion" with Mohamed El Erian at a Cambridge Union event on Thursday. There is a Q&A at this event, so he could be asked how his thinking is evolving after last week's labour market and inflation data.
  • The other key event of the week will be a speech by Chief Economist Huw Pill on the economic outlook (hosted by CBI North East) on Friday at 13:00GMT. Last week, Pill's comment that the first hike would not necessarily be 15bp moved markets somewhat (although partly due to the remarks being taken out of context). He said that ideally the Bank wanted to get back to quarter percentage point intervals for rate hikes, but it didn't necessarily have to happen immediately and the MPC would leave the door open to other hiking increments. His comments did not sound to us as though he would vote for a 40bp hike in December!
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