Key takeaways from the Survey of Professional...>

ECB: Key takeaways from the Survey of Professional Forecasters:

- The significant upward revision to GDP forecasts. Expectations for real GDP

growth in 2018, 2019 and 2020 stood at 2.3%, 1.9%, and 1.7%, respectively.

Compared to the Q4 2017 survey, this is an upward revision of 0.4p.p. for 2018

and 0.2p.p. for 2019. However, 'longer term growth expectations' a measure akin

to trend growth remained at 1.6% but there forecasts do suggest that forecasters

see the Eurozone economy running faster than trend for the next three years. 

- Unemployment revisions also fell firmly. For 2018, 2019 and 2020 were 8.4%,

7.9% and 7.6%, respectively and are downward revisions, of 0.2p.p. for 2018 and

0.3p.p. for 2019, compared with the previous survey in Q4 2017. The ECB noted

that this was the largest downward revision to the long term unemployment rate

in the survey's history. Note that the longer-term unemployment rate expectation

is a concept akin to full employment or NAIRU was seen 0.4p.p. lower than before

at 7.5%. Thus, full employment is not seen as being hit before 2020. 

- The refi rate was seen at 0% in 2018, 0.24% in 2019 and 0.65% in 2020.