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Keystone Outage Weighs On CAD

CANADA
  • USDCAD sits -0.2% close to session lows at 1.2948 but CAD notably lags other high beta majors, in what’s likely some spillover from yesterday’s Keystone pipeline outage cutting some Canadian oil to US refiners (TC Energy declaring force majeure).
  • Against that and also late yesterday, Scotiabank revised up their BoC rate call to peak at 3.5% (initially 3%) this year where it stays through 2023. Economic growth projections were revised down to a still healthy 3.5% in ’22 and 1.6% in ’23, helped by pent-up demand avoiding the recession RBC has forecast.
  • Scotia offer a more bullish outlook for the loonie than TD’s continued post-CPI target of USDCAD 1.35, looking for 1.27 in both Q3 and Q4 this year and 1.23 for end-2023.
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