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Kochalski Talks Down Likelihood of 2023 Rate Cuts

POLAND
  • NBP’s Kochalski spoke to PAP this weekend, claiming that rates sit at an “appropriate” level under their base case scenario. Kochalski added that “we currently have a pause in the cycle”, with strong disinflationary processes expected in 2023.
  • Lawmakers in the junior coalition party continue to take a firm stance on EU recovery funds with the deputy justice minister stating Poland should veto upcoming EU decisions in order to strengthen its position in negotiations.
  • Latest estimates for costs facing Poland to cover energy subsidies sit between PLN 20 – 40bln amid high natural gas prices, according to DGP. The report added that Poland are discussing a similar price cap for SMEs, but chances are slim.
  • Poland will be forced to restore standard VAT levels on electricity, fuels and fertilizers due to EU rules, although the government was able to secure an extended zero VAT rate for food staples, according to the state assets minister.
  • Both the government and ruling party members are pressing banks across Poland to offer higher deposit rates, applicable to both older deposit accounts as well as new products, according to PAP.
  • A GfK survey in Rzeczpospolita sees only 10% of households not limiting their consumer spending amid higher prices.
  • Amid continued fraught tensions between Russia and CEE countries, Poland barred the entry of Russian foreign minister Lavrov to the OSCE meeting on December 1st, with Poland saying they weren’t expecting Lavrov’s attendance at all – despite Russia claiming otherwise.
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