Kremlin Claims It Has Repelled Large-Scale Ukrainian Assault

The Russian Defence Ministry has claimed that it has repelled a 'large-scale' attack from Ukrainian forces in the Donetsk oblast in what could be the launch of Kyiv's long-expected summer counteroffensive. The Ukrainian armed forces stated that no forewarning of an assault would be given, meaning that first reports are more likely to come from the Russian side.

• NYT: "...a Russian Telegram channel that reports on the war said Ukrainian forces had breached a first line of Russian defenses near the town of Velyka Novosilka in Donetsk, and reclaimed two villages as Russian forces fell back to reserve positions. Buttressing the Russian reports the counteroffensive had begun, independent American military analysts said they believed Ukrainian units had begun an initial thrust to determine the position and strength of Russia’s forces."
• A counteroffensive would likely see a notable escalation in the severity of the conflict, with the front line having proved largely static in recent months. For Ukraine, the impact of newly-trained battalions and donated Western tanks will be tested for the first time. Meanwhile, for Russia there remains the prospect of further troop mobilisations being required in the event of significant losses. This in turn could see domestic opinion within Russia towards the war shift in a negative fashion.