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Kremlin Ukraine Strategy Of Plausible Deniability Crystalising

US-RUSSIA
  • US Secretary of State Antony Blinken and his Russian counterpart Sergei Lavrov are holding a phone call today. Expected to discuss the Russian response to US security proposals and the UN Security Council meeting yesterday.
  • A Russian strategy of plausible deniability has been crystalising in recent days. This strategy was highly effective in the annexation of Crimea. Moscow maintain there is no planned invasion.
  • Russia at UN demanded that the West provide proof that Russia is mobilising for an invasion of Ukraine. Say that US must demonstrate that the troop movements within the Russian Federation constitute an act of aggression towards Ukraine rather than merely routine or defensive maneuverers within Russian territory.
  • This is a highly challenging diplomatic environment. The US is in danger of being locked into period of closed doors security discussions with Russia on European security.
  • To add diplomatic strength US Sanctions on Russia are expected to pass the Senate this week and the US is gathering assurances from LNG producers to avert a European energy crisis in the event of war or sanctions.
  • Blinken must build upon the progress made last week by advancing discussions on the development of a framework of European security without appearing to concede to Russian hostility. The US must also assure NATO allies that the collective defence pact (Article 5) remains firmly in place.
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USEM BulletHomepagePolitical Market NewsPolitical RiskEmerging Market NewsPolitical Risk BulletCEEMEABulletMarketsFixed Income BulletsForeign Exchange Bullets

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