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KRW: Breaks Out Of Channel, Further Gains In Sight


CNH/KRW retains bullish tone and has punched through the top of an ascending channel, which withstood several tests in Dec & Jan. The current uptrend started in early Dec, as the RSI returned from oversold territory. CNH/KRW has subsequently moved through the 50-DMA and the 100-DMA and established itself above these moving averages. This week, the rate attacked its 200-DMA, a level which kept a lid on gains earlier this month. CNH/KRW staged a clean break above the aforementioned 200-DMA and channel top, with bulls looking for further gains. The RSI has narrowed in on the 70 mark, but is yet to enter overbought territory, which suggests scope for further gains.

  • The initial layer of resistance is provided by the 61.8% Fibo retracement of the Apr 21 - Dec 7, 2020 sell-off at KRW171.22, which has limited gains thus far. A break here would give bulls a green light for targeting Oct 2020 highs, located at KRW172.78. Conversely, a retreat under the 200-DMA at KRW170.56 would shift focus to the 100-DMA/Jan 15 low at KRW169.59/169.49.
  • The won has been the worst performer in Asia this year, while the redback has been second only to TWD. KRW underperforms all of its peers from the Asia EM basket today, after Samsung's Q4 earnings missed estimates (outlook for Q1 was fairly pessimistic), while the IMF recommended that South Korea should ramp up fiscal and monetary support.

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