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MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
FRANCE
Le Parisien is reporting that according to its sources, the appointment of a new prime minister is 'imminient', with former foreign minister Michel Barnier the favourite to be named as head of the next gov't. As we noted earlier (see 'FRANCE: Barnier Tipped For PM Position As Frustration w/Macron Grows', 0841BST), the name of Barnier only emergedon 4 Sep. Le Figaro reports that Macron is in consultations with party group heads on backing Barnier for Matignon.
- Le Parisien: "[caretaker PM] Gabriel Attal sent a message to his close relations planning a transfer of power at 4 p.m.[CET] after a press release to formalize the appointment of the new Prime Minister scheduled (in principle!) for 1 p.m."
- In the event that Barnier is named as PM, there will be immediate focus on whether his gov't will be able to carry a majority in the National Assembly. The combined forces of Macron's centrist Ensemble, the conservative Les Republicains (LR) from where Barnier hails, and other centrist/centre-right groups comes to fewer than the 289 seats required for a majority (see chart below).
- Should all other political forces vote against such a gov't in a censure vote, the administration would fall. Backing from the centre-left Socialist Party (PS, 63 seats) would be enough to give such a gov't a majority. However, to date the PS has maintained its alliance with other New Popular Front members.
Chart 1. National Assembly, Seats (Ensemble, Centrists & LR)
Source: Le Monde
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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