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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
AUSTRALIA
The incumbent centre-right Liberal/National Coalition gov't of Premier Dominic Perrottet is on course to lose its majority in Australia's most populous state New South Wales according to opinion polling. The election, taking place on 25 March, looks set to deliver a majority for the centre-left Labor Party in what would be a notable political development in a state that has been run by the Coalition since 2011.
- Polling in January shows Labor ahead of the Coalition on a primary vote basis by 3-6%, but on the two-party preferred vote Labor leads by 12% according to polling by YouGov.
- Labor continues to benefit from the broad popularity of the gov't of PM Anthony Albanese at the federal level. A win for Labour in NSW would see the party control the gov'ts of all Australian states and internal territories, apart from Liberal-controlled Tasmania.
- The 29% primary vote support recorded by the Coalition in a January 2023 Resolve Strategic federal-level opinion poll was the lowest for the parties since March 2008, which came in the wake of Labor PM Kevin Rudd's landslide win in the Nov 2007 election.
- While the next federal election is not due until 2025 at the latest without a notable turnaround for Peter Dutton's Coalition, a sustained period of ALP governance looks increasingly likely.
Chart 1. NSW Election Primary Vote Opinion Polling, %
Source: Resolve Strategic, Essential, Roy Morgan, YouGov, Newspoll, Freshwater Strategy, MNI
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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